Forecasting GDP for European Union (EU)‎ using an ARIMA model

الملخص EN

Gross domestic product (GDP) is a significant indicator to describe and evaluate economic activity and levels of development, and also often used by decision-makers to plan economic policy.

therefore, this paper aims to modeling and predict the GDP ratio in European union; by applying the box- Jenkins methodology for the period 1991-2022.

based on the results, Arima (1.0.1) was found to be the best model for the GDP.

in addition, the forecasted values of the GDP ratio for the next three years (2023-2025) were (2.5%; 2.13%; 1.98%) respectively.

compared with 2021, the GDP is forecasted to decrease in 2022, and this implies that the European union economy is tending toward stagflation