استعمال نموذج Lee-Carter لتقدير الخصوبة في الجزائر والتنبؤ بمعدلاتها خلال الفترة (2019-2039)‎

الملخص EN

This is what made us look for a modern statistical tool that aims to shed light on the development of fertility and propose a standard model that allows us to estimate and predict its rates in (2019-2039).

our study relied on the analytical methodology on the theoretical side, and the standard statistical on the applied side, using the (lee-carter) method, which is mainly based on the time variable.

as an essential component of estimation, and on ARIMA time series models.

we obtained the detailed predictive values for fertility up to 2039, and the results predicted a decline in total fertility over the next two decades, approaching its replacement rate in 2039.