قياس أثر الإيرادات الريعية على الحيز المالي للاقتصاد العراقي للمدة (2004-2019)‎

الملخص EN

This study seeks to measure the impact of rentier revenues on the financial space of monetary indicators (savings, foreign reserves) and financial indicators (public debt, tax).

the research problem lies in the lack of a standard economic view of the impact and type of relationship among the research variables.

it is supposed that the existence of a varying effect (positive and negative relationship) of rentier income in the studied indicators.

the effect is measured for the period (2004-2019) by relying on time-series analysis, static testing, and co-integration according to the (Ardle) methodology.

the research finds out a causal relationship between rentier income and the studied variables, a long-term inverse relationship between rentier income and the monetary variable represented by the financial space provided by savings, a positive relationship with foreign reserves, and a positive and moral relationship in the long term between rentier income and the financial space provided by debt.

in addition to that, the weak (inverse) relationship in the short and long term between the tax space and the rentier income was shown.

the research recommends expanding the space for savings by increasing the interest rate on bank deposits, reducing consumption, maintaining and developing foreign reserves.

the government should direct financial surpluses to repay debts, enhancing tax revenues and raising their percentage by imposing new taxes.