مؤشرات الإنذار المبكر للأزمات المصرفية مع التطبيق على بعض الدول العربية ذات الاقتصاديات المتنوعة

الملخص EN

This paper aims to determine the indicators that could be included in the early warning system of banking crises of diversified economies.

It uses a pooled regression model with panel data of four Arab countries: Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia and Morocco during the period 1999-2007.

The econometric results show that the ratio of bank liquid reserves to assets, bank capital to assets, bank return on assets and turnover rate of stocks are negatively and significantly related to the index of banking crises that this paper proposes.

Other variables that have significant positive effects on this index include the ratio of both short-run capital inflows and trade deficit to GDP.

However, it has been shown that economic growth rate, inflation rate, real interest rate and budget deficit have no significant effects on this index.

Taking all these results together, the paper captures the importance of the inclusion of both financial and external economic performance indicators on designing an early warning system of banking crises for this set of economies.