National and regional implications of agricultural efficiency improvement in sudan

الملخص EN

Agriculture in Sudan has three main farming systems: (a) traditional rain-fed sector; (b) mechanized rain-fed sector; and (c) irrigated sector.

The traditional rain-fed sector, which is the focus of this paper,occupies an average of 60% of the total cultivated land and employs about 65% of the agricultural population during the last ten years.

Nevertheless, this sector is characterized by low crop productivity mainly driven by low technical efficiency; therefore, it has contributedonly an average of 16% to the total agricultural GDP during the last decade.This paper is an attempt to assess the national and regional effects of improving technical efficiencies of the crops produced in this sector.The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) and the GTAP Africa Database that includes the newly constructed Sudanese Input/Output Table are employed for this purpose.

Technical change parameters of the value-added functions of the model are augmented to reflect the intended simulations.

Results indicate that improving the technical efficiencies of the major crops in the traditional rain-fed sector of Sudan would improve the country’s overall GDP and welfare.

Moreover, it increases the domestic output and improves the trade balances of the crops in the traditional rain-fed sector, for which efficiency improvement is simulated.

Results also indicate that the efficiency improvement scenario would have slight regional effects as it increases the domestic demand for imported grain crops and oilseeds from Sudan into the Middle East and North Africa, Congo and Ethiopia.