Using bayesian approach in updating the input-output table with application to Egypt

الملخص EN

The I / O table illustrates the interaction relations between the economic sectors of the economy.

This paper will introduce a Bayesian approach for updating I / O table with application to Egypt when the final demand is random variable with exponential distribution and its parameters (a, 6) are unknown and having prior distribution.

In Bayesian approach ; we need to compute posterior II* (a, 6 I x).

This approach is sometimes called the predictive approach.

By considering the final demand is random variable with exponential distribution and its parameters (a, 0) are unknown and having prior distribution.

Using the joint prior density of (a, 0) as II (a, 01 x) to find the joint posterior of (a, 6) as II * (a, 61 x).

The posterior distribution contains all the current information (prior and posterior) about (a, 0) and consequently any estimates on (a, 6) should be deduced from this posterior distribution.

The problem will be tackled in two steps.

Firstly, the relationships among the I / O Table components will be presented in a stochastic goal program form.

Secondly, the stochastic program will be transformed to a deterministic goal program using the chance-constrained approach.

The solution of the deterministic program gives the output I / O table.

The Goal programming technique is then used to satisfy the balance conditions of I / O table ; the equalization of each row-column sum.

These balance conditions are formulated in linear goal program form.

The solution of this L.G.P.

gives the updated I / O Table.