A modified apache ii score for predicting mortality of variceal bleeding

الملخص EN

Introduction : Prediction of outcome of based on personal experience is subjective.

There is a need for a method of prediction to suit our current state of practice.

Objectives : To evaluate a modified APACHE II system in predicting mortality in acute varietal bleeding.

Patients and methods : Prospective study conducted from June 2005 through September 2006 in the Ibn Sina Hospital Bleeding Centre ICU.

Clinical and laboratory data for 102 patients were allotted a modified APACHE II score, a child mortality.

Results : The mean (± SD) age 49.2( ± 16.1) years.

Male were 79 (77.5 %).

Patients with liver cirrhosis and per portal fibrosis were 75 (73.5 %) and 27 (26.5 %) respectively.

The mean predicted mortality was 22.8 % while the actual mortality was 26.5 % (27) patients.

The mean modified APACHE II score among the deceased group was 19.04.

Ra deaths among liver cirrhosis patients was 12 (44.4 %) with mean predicted mortality of 27.3 %.

Deaths among per portal fibrosis occur at mean modified APACHE II score 17.7 and mean predicted mortality of 20 %.

Seventeen patients had ICU stay ≥ 4 days.

Ten out of them died (58.8 %).

Conclusion : Modified APACHE II score is effective in predicting outcome of patients with varietal bleeding.

Score of ≥ 15 points and long ICU stay are associated with high mortality.