Sensitivity analysis of parameters for probabilistic seismic hazard for Sudan

الملخص EN

The sensitivity analysis used in the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Sudan was investigated using alternative magnitude sets, area source patterns, assumption of acceleration standard deviation, and estimation of earthquake focal depths.

The active faults passing through Sudan were modeled as area sources.

An updated catalogue covering the period 1632 – 2007 was used.

The calculations were made for peak ground acceleration (PGA) at Khartoum city for 10% probability of exceedance of PGA for exposure time periods of 50, 100, 200 and 500 years.

The paper shows that the acceleration standard deviation and the focal depth were the most sensitive parameters to seismic hazard level.

On the other hand, it was observed that small magnitudes have a small effect upon the hazard level.

KEYWORDS: Seismic hazard, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty, Sudan