Determinants of labor force participation in Syria (2001-2010)‎

الملخص EN

This paper highlights the Syrian labor market challenges by analyzing the determinants of labor force participation rate between 2001 and 2010, and investigating the decrease in this rate, which was unexpected since Syria witnessed high population and economic growth rates during the last decade.

The study assesses the gap between the actual and simulated volume of labor force in 2009 building on the assumption that the labor force participation rates in 2009 was equal to 2001.

The simulation results show that at the actual job creation level, the unemployment rate would be 25.3 % instead of the actual rates 8.6 %, as 1,174 thousand individuals should have entered the labor force instead of being out of it.

These individuals live mainly in rural areas and they are mostly categorized as unable, housewives, and students.

The paper uses a parametric logistic regression to identify the main factors that are associated with the probability of participating in the labor force.

The regression has been applied on each annual data and then on a pool data from all years.

The results indicate that being a female, youth, married woman, unmarried man, living in urban areas, and having a middle level of education are all factors that have a negative impact on the probability for being in the labor market.

Based on the empirical results, the paper suggests policy options to overcome the main challenges facing the labor market.

These policies focus on developing a sustainable strategy for the agriculture sector ; empowering females in rural areas ; improving working conditions, particularly for disabled people ; reviewing the early retirement policy ; improving education quality and encouraging enrolment in higher education, and adopting balance development policies among regions.