Short term electrical load forecasting using holt-winters method

الملخص EN

Load forecasting is a process of predicting the future load demands.

It is important for electrical power system planners and demand controllers in ensuring that there would be enough supply of electricity to cope with increasing demands.

Thus, accurate load forecasting can lead to an overall reduction of cost, better budget planning, and maintenance scheduling and fuel management.

Therefore this study aimed to develop new forecasting model for forecasting electricity load demand which will minimize the error of forecasting.

This paper presents an attempt to forecast the daily peak demand of electricity by using an appropriate time series model.

It is the Seasonal Holt-Winters method.

The performance of this method was evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria namely, the Absolute Percentage Error (APE) and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).

Based on these criteria the Holt-Winters method emerged as a suitable model for forecasting electricity demand in Iraq.