Design of concession period considering risk management for a road project

المؤلفون المشاركون

Bagui, Swapan Kumar
Ghosh, Ambarish

المصدر

Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering

العدد

المجلد 7، العدد 4 (31 ديسمبر/كانون الأول 2013)، ص ص. 401-418، 18ص.

الناشر

جامعة العلوم و التكنولوجيا الأردنية عمادة البحث العلمي

تاريخ النشر

2013-12-31

دولة النشر

الأردن

عدد الصفحات

18

الموضوع الرئيسي

هندسة الطرق

الموضوعات

الملخص EN

The design of concession period for build–operate–transfer (BOT) projects is crucial to financial viability and completion risk management.

A systematic analysis shows that concession period design involves the design of concession period structure as well as the determination of the concession period length.

The concession period may have a single-period structure or a two-period structure; its length may be fixed or variable.

Different designs reflect different risk control strategies for completion time overruns.

The single-period concession structure requires the project company to assume completion risk, while the two-period concession structure could, to some extent, reduce the completion risk exposure to the project company, depending on the various parameters.

Through Monte Carlo simulation, this paper evaluates the mean net present value (NPV), variance and NPV-at-risk of different concession period structures, so that both the government and the concessionaires can understand their risk exposure and rewards.

The paper then analyzes the influence of project characteristics on concession period design to evaluate the feasibility of the design.

Expected concession period has been calculated using Monte Carlo simulation method, and expected concession periods have been found to be 28.25 years and 26.46 years based on level of service and 95 % risk consideration.

نمط استشهاد جمعية علماء النفس الأمريكية (APA)

Bagui, Swapan Kumar& Ghosh, Ambarish. 2013. Design of concession period considering risk management for a road project. Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering،Vol. 7, no. 4, pp.401-418.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-340304

نمط استشهاد الجمعية الأمريكية للغات الحديثة (MLA)

Bagui, Swapan Kumar& Ghosh, Ambarish. Design of concession period considering risk management for a road project. Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering Vol. 7, no. 4 (2013), pp.401-418.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-340304

نمط استشهاد الجمعية الطبية الأمريكية (AMA)

Bagui, Swapan Kumar& Ghosh, Ambarish. Design of concession period considering risk management for a road project. Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering. 2013. Vol. 7, no. 4, pp.401-418.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-340304

نوع البيانات

مقالات

لغة النص

الإنجليزية

الملاحظات

Includes bibliographical references : p. 417-418

رقم السجل

BIM-340304