Use of statistical methods to detect climate change and-or variability in the Blue Nile River
مقدم أطروحة جامعية
مشرف أطروحة جامعية
Bashshar, Kamal al-Din al-Sadiq
الجامعة
جامعة أم درمان الإسلامية
الكلية
كرسي اليونسكو للمياه
دولة الجامعة
السودان
الدرجة العلمية
ماجستير
تاريخ الدرجة العلمية
2005
الملخص الإنجليزي
Water is getting serious attention throughout the world.
It has a vital role in sustaining life and development in arid and semi-arid regions.
It could be argued that water resources in Sudan are rather limited, despite the fact that it comprises rainfall, surface flows and groundwater. The major river (from the Ethiopian Plateau) contributes about 84 % of the Nile water, which is characterized by strong annual cycle and great inter-annual variability, with a dominant peak in August. The objective of this research is to apply statistical techniques to detect evidence of climate variability or climate change in the time series of flow and rainfall of the Blue Nile River.
The analyzed series includes rainfall series at (8) rain gauging stations and flow series at Eddeim. The techniques used include trend analysis, Automatic Segmentation of Time Series, Split Sample Technique for detection of recent trends in a time series, Onset, Cessation, and length of the rainy season or Duration, the total rainfall within the rainy season, peak flow and time to peak. The Annual Mean Areal Rainfall was found to be 1270 mm with standard deviation of 121.34 mm and the coefficient of variation 0.1.
Trend analysis showed that there is a statistically significant declining trend.
The average Onset of the Rainfall was found to be at dekad 11 (April 11-20) and the average Cessation date was found to be the 28th dekad (October 01–10). The Mean Annual Flow was found to be 525079.4 m3 / s with a standard deviation of 101711.2 m3 / s and coefficient of variation 0.19.
There is no significant trend in the annual Flow series.
However, the Split Sampling and Automatic Segmentation revealed that the mean value of the flow dropped over 80s. The average Onset of the Flow at Eddeim was found to be at dekad 19 (01-10 July) and the Cessation was found to be at dekad 31 (01-10 November), giving a Duration of 12 dekads of flow.
The Onset, Cessation and Duration analysis was redone for the periods of the Split Sampling and Automatic Segmentation.
The results showed that the Onset systematically changed in the three periods and become one dekad earlier from the previous period.
The Cessation remains the same.
This makes Duration in each period to become longer by one dekad from the previous one. There is no statistically significant trend in the Annual Peaks, and the average time to Peak was found to be 21st of August with standard deviations 13.54 and coefficient of variation 0.06. The study found that, despite the statistically significant declining trends in the rainfall series and the change in mean flow series, the variations can be attributed to climate variability.
There is no evidence of climate change detected within the study period as no systematic prevailing changes seen.
التخصصات الرئيسية
الموضوعات
عدد الصفحات
79
قائمة المحتويات
Table of contents.
Abstract.
Chapter One : Introduction.
Chapter Two : Literature review.
Chapter Three : Theory.
Chapter Four : Methodology.
Chapter Five : Applications and results.
Chapter Six : Conclusions and recommendations.
References.
نمط استشهاد جمعية علماء النفس الأمريكية (APA)
Ahmad, Rihab Husayn Bayyumi. (2005). Use of statistical methods to detect climate change and-or variability in the Blue Nile River. (Master's theses Theses and Dissertations Master). Omdurman Islamic University, Sudan
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-364136
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الأمريكية للغات الحديثة (MLA)
Ahmad, Rihab Husayn Bayyumi. Use of statistical methods to detect climate change and-or variability in the Blue Nile River. (Master's theses Theses and Dissertations Master). Omdurman Islamic University. (2005).
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-364136
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الطبية الأمريكية (AMA)
Ahmad, Rihab Husayn Bayyumi. (2005). Use of statistical methods to detect climate change and-or variability in the Blue Nile River. (Master's theses Theses and Dissertations Master). Omdurman Islamic University, Sudan
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-364136
لغة النص
الإنجليزية
نوع البيانات
رسائل جامعية
رقم السجل
BIM-364136
قاعدة معامل التأثير والاستشهادات المرجعية العربي "ارسيف Arcif"
أضخم قاعدة بيانات عربية للاستشهادات المرجعية للمجلات العلمية المحكمة الصادرة في العالم العربي
تقوم هذه الخدمة بالتحقق من التشابه أو الانتحال في الأبحاث والمقالات العلمية والأطروحات الجامعية والكتب والأبحاث باللغة العربية، وتحديد درجة التشابه أو أصالة الأعمال البحثية وحماية ملكيتها الفكرية. تعرف اكثر