الزيادة السكانية و دورها في النمو الاقتصادي : دراسة تحليلية قياسية لحالة الأردن (1970-2000)‎

الملخص EN

This study is aimed at explaining the two kinds of population increase in Jordan; the natural increase, which is the difference between the number of births and that of deaths, and the unnatural increase, which is the net migration volume.

The study also aimed to explain the effect of these two increases on the economic growth represented by the growth in real gross domestic product.

The study historically demonstrated the population status in Jordan and indicated that the rate of population growth is still high despite the continuous decrease in it.

With respect to the Jordanian economy, it witnessed a chronic trade deficit and a noticeable development in the levels of production, employment, and foreign trade, where the services sector is considered as the biggest sector according to its participation in the national production and also in employment.

In order to attain its objectives, the study used a time-series data to estimate the econometric models of the equations number (11), (12), and (13) using the Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS).

The results of the study showed that both population growth and unnatural increase have two negative effects on the economic growth in Jordan, the estimated coefficients of their effects were (-7.72) and (-6.81) respectively.

On the contrary, the natural increase has a positive effect on the economic growth, the estimated coefficient for its effect was (78.59).