اتجاه التأثير ما بين الصادرات النفظية و النمو الاقتصادي : حالة الجزائر

الملخص EN

The Trend of impact of oil exports on economic growth: the case Algeria, An Empirical Study from 1980 to 2009.

This study aims to assess the impact of oil exports on economic growth in Algeria during the period from 1980 until 2009.

To achieve this, an econometric model was estimated, starting with an ordinary production function, then adding the variable of exports, that consists of gross domestic product (GDP) which stands as a representative of the economic growth and is a dependent variable as well as other four independent variables which are : oil exports (OILEXP), non-oil exports (NOILEXP), variable capital stock (KS), and labor (LAB).

Further more, two methods have been sued in the analyzing of the impact of oil exports on economic growth : the first is an analysis of data from 1980 to 2009 using XL-STAT 10, and the second method is regression analysis using E-VIEWS 7 by examining the stationarity of time series for each variable using the unit root test.

The result when we used the cointegration of the model’s variables and Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) show that the capital stock variable is more important than the oil export one in terms of influencing the economic growth.

Besides that, the results show that both the non-oil exports and work do not affect the GDP and therefore have no influence upon the economic growth in Algeria during the period of the study.

The study recommended the need for rational use of oil export revenues to support investment, and work to improve the quality of production and services and increase competitiveness, in order to raise the value of exports outside hydrocarbons.