Analysis of the Mathematical Model for the Spread of Pine Wilt Disease

الملخص EN

This paper formulates and analyzes a pine wilt disease model.

Mathematical analyses of the model with regard to invariance of nonnegativity, boundedness of the solutions, existence of nonnegative equilibria, permanence, and global stability are presented.

It is proved that the global dynamics are determined by the basic reproduction number ℛ0 and the other value ℛc which is larger than ℛ0.

If ℛ0 and ℛc are both less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is asymptotically stable and the pine wilt disease always dies out.

If one is between the two values, though the pine wilt disease could occur, the outbreak will stop.

If the basic reproduction number is greater than one, a unique endemic equilibrium exists and is globally stable in the interior of the feasible region, and the disease persists at the endemic equilibrium state if it initially exists.

Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the theoretical results, and some disease control measures are especially presented by these theoretical results.