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Assortativity and the Probability of Epidemic Extinction : A Case Study of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1-2009)
المؤلفون المشاركون
Cowling, Benjamin J.
Nishiura, Hiroshi
Cook, Alex R.
المصدر
Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases
العدد
المجلد 2011، العدد 2011 (31 ديسمبر/كانون الأول 2011)، ص ص. 1-9، 9ص.
الناشر
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
تاريخ النشر
2010-12-23
دولة النشر
مصر
عدد الصفحات
9
التخصصات الرئيسية
الملخص EN
Unlike local transmission of pandemic influenza A (H1N1-2009), which was frequently driven by school children, most cases identified in long-distance intranational and international travelers have been adults.
The present study examines the relationship between the probability of temporary extinction and the age-dependent next-generation matrix, focusing on the impact of assortativity.
Preferred mixing captures as a good approximation the assortativity of a heterogeneously mixing population.
We show that the contribution of a nonmaintenance host (i.e., a host type which cannot sustain transmission on its own) to the risk of a major epidemic is greatly diminished as mixing patterns become more assortative, and in such a scenario, a higher proportion of non-maintenance hosts among index cases elevates the probability of extinction.
Despite the presence of various other epidemiological factors that undoubtedly influenced the delay between first importations and the subsequent epidemic, these results suggest that the dominance of adults among imported cases represents one of the possible factors explaining the delays in geographic spread observed during the recent pandemic.
نمط استشهاد جمعية علماء النفس الأمريكية (APA)
Nishiura, Hiroshi& Cook, Alex R.& Cowling, Benjamin J.. 2010. Assortativity and the Probability of Epidemic Extinction : A Case Study of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1-2009). Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases،Vol. 2011, no. 2011, pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-453514
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الأمريكية للغات الحديثة (MLA)
Nishiura, Hiroshi…[et al.]. Assortativity and the Probability of Epidemic Extinction : A Case Study of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1-2009). Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases No. 2011 (2011), pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-453514
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الطبية الأمريكية (AMA)
Nishiura, Hiroshi& Cook, Alex R.& Cowling, Benjamin J.. Assortativity and the Probability of Epidemic Extinction : A Case Study of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1-2009). Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases. 2010. Vol. 2011, no. 2011, pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-453514
نوع البيانات
مقالات
لغة النص
الإنجليزية
الملاحظات
Includes bibliographical references
رقم السجل
BIM-453514
قاعدة معامل التأثير والاستشهادات المرجعية العربي "ارسيف Arcif"
أضخم قاعدة بيانات عربية للاستشهادات المرجعية للمجلات العلمية المحكمة الصادرة في العالم العربي
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