Projection of Social Burden of the Elderly in Japan Using INAHSIM-II

الملخص EN

By using a microsimulation model named INAHSIM, we conducted a household projection in Japan for the period of 2011–2060.

Due to rapid aging of the population, the distribution of the elderly (65 years old or older) by living arrangement and dependency level has a profound impact on the future social burden.

In this paper, we measured the social burden of the elderly by three variables: (1) institutionalization rate (percentage of the elderly living in institutions), (2) parent-child ratio (relative number of old parents taking into account the number of brothers and sisters), and (3) one-year transition matrix of the elderly by household type.

Especially, the choice of the elderly among (a) living independently, (b) coresident with child households, and (c) moving to institutions are crucial indicators for the future social burden of the elderly in Japan.