A stochastic dynamic programming approach based on bounded rationality and application to dynamic portfolio choice

الملخص EN

Dynamic portfolio choice is an important problem in finance, but the optimal strategy analysis is difficult when considering multiple stochastic volatility variables such as the stock price, interest rate, and income.

Besides, recent research in experimental economics indicates that the agent shows limited attention, considering only the variables with high fluctuations but ignoring those with small ones.

By extending the sparse max method, we propose an approach to solve dynamic programming problem with small stochastic volatility and the agent’s bounded rationality.

This approach considers the agent’s behavioral factors and avoids effectively the “Curse of Dimensionality” in a dynamic programming problem with more than a few state variables.

We then apply it to Merton dynamic portfolio choice model with stochastic volatility and get a tractable solution.

Finally, the numerical analysis shows that the bounded rational agent may pay no attention to the varying equity premium and interest rate with small variance.