The Time Required to Estimate the Case Fatality Ratio of Influenza Using Only the Tip of an Iceberg : Joint Estimation of the Virulence and the Transmission Potential
المؤلفون المشاركون
Omori, Ryosuke
Cowling, Benjamin J.
Aihara, Kazuyuki
Nishiura, Hiroshi
Ejima, Keisuke
المصدر
Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
العدد
المجلد 2012، العدد 2012 (31 ديسمبر/كانون الأول 2012)، ص ص. 1-10، 10ص.
الناشر
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
تاريخ النشر
2012-05-10
دولة النشر
مصر
عدد الصفحات
10
التخصصات الرئيسية
الملخص EN
Estimating the case fatality ratio (CFR) of a novel strain of influenza virus during the early stage of the pandemic is one of key epidemiological tasks to be conducted as rapid research response.
Past experience during the epidemics of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and influenza A (H1N1-2009) posed several technical challenges in estimating the CFR in real time.
The present study aimed to develop a simple method to estimate the CFR based on readily available datasets, that is, confirmed cases and deaths, while addressing some of the known technical issues.
To assess the reliability and validity of the proposed method, we examined the minimum length of time required for the assigned CFR to be included within the 95% confidence intervals and for the estimated CFR to be below a prespecified cut-off value by means of Monte Carlo simulations.
Overall, the smaller the transmission potential was, the longer it took to compare the estimated CFR against the cut-off value.
If policymaking and public health response have to be made based on the CFR estimate derived from the proposed method and readily available data, it should be noted that the successful estimation may take longer than a few months.
نمط استشهاد جمعية علماء النفس الأمريكية (APA)
Ejima, Keisuke& Omori, Ryosuke& Cowling, Benjamin J.& Aihara, Kazuyuki& Nishiura, Hiroshi. 2012. The Time Required to Estimate the Case Fatality Ratio of Influenza Using Only the Tip of an Iceberg : Joint Estimation of the Virulence and the Transmission Potential. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine،Vol. 2012, no. 2012, pp.1-10.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-513087
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الأمريكية للغات الحديثة (MLA)
Ejima, Keisuke…[et al.]. The Time Required to Estimate the Case Fatality Ratio of Influenza Using Only the Tip of an Iceberg : Joint Estimation of the Virulence and the Transmission Potential. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine No. 2012 (2012), pp.1-10.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-513087
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الطبية الأمريكية (AMA)
Ejima, Keisuke& Omori, Ryosuke& Cowling, Benjamin J.& Aihara, Kazuyuki& Nishiura, Hiroshi. The Time Required to Estimate the Case Fatality Ratio of Influenza Using Only the Tip of an Iceberg : Joint Estimation of the Virulence and the Transmission Potential. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine. 2012. Vol. 2012, no. 2012, pp.1-10.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-513087
نوع البيانات
مقالات
لغة النص
الإنجليزية
الملاحظات
Includes bibliographical references
رقم السجل
BIM-513087
قاعدة معامل التأثير والاستشهادات المرجعية العربي "ارسيف Arcif"
أضخم قاعدة بيانات عربية للاستشهادات المرجعية للمجلات العلمية المحكمة الصادرة في العالم العربي
تقوم هذه الخدمة بالتحقق من التشابه أو الانتحال في الأبحاث والمقالات العلمية والأطروحات الجامعية والكتب والأبحاث باللغة العربية، وتحديد درجة التشابه أو أصالة الأعمال البحثية وحماية ملكيتها الفكرية. تعرف اكثر