استقرار دالة الطلب على النقود في مصر : مضامين لسياسة نقدية فعالة

الملخص EN

The function of money demand is an important tool for monetary policy formulation.

It is essential that this function be stable in order to ensure effective monetary policy.

Accordingly, review the stability of the demand of money demand function of is an essential condition for Egypt to implement an effective monetary policy; especially that Egypt uses broad money –defined as M2– as the intermediate target to achieve its main policy objective (price stability).

Since 2003, the Egypt has undergone a number of structural changes which included substantial degree of banking sector deepening, the adoption of a managed float exchange rate system, changes in monetary policy, introducing an interest rate corridor and the reliance on market determined indirect instruments of monetary policy.

These developments may have caused the money demand function to become unstable.

Moreover, from 2008 to 2011, Egypt was exposed to significant global shocks, particularly with the beginning of 2011, which put the Egyptian economy on the brink of danger; hence, the main goal of the (CBE) is to manage the liquidity (M2) shocks.

The main objective of this study is to examine the long–and short-run determinants of (M2) money demand and its stability in Egypt to provide an empirical investigation of the hypotheses that”.

The function of the demand for money in Egypt is unstable during the period 2003 until the mid of 2013.” Using monthly data from 2003:M1 to 2013:M5.

The Johansen cointegration test shows the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between money demand, income, interest rate, rate of T-bills, inflation rate, exchange rate, budget deficit, and the stock market indicator.

Furthermore, the ECM model shows that the changes in these variables are important in causing disruptions of MDF in the short run, especially the fluctuations in; the exchange rate, inflation and money market index..