رؤية مستقبلية لأمن دول مجرى نهر الفرات المائي : دراسة في الجغرافية السياسية

الملخص EN

Water is considered as one of the most important basis of the national security of any country in this World especially in the arid and semi arid regions which depend on short water resources just as in Iraq which depends on its surface water resources represented by Tigris and Euphrates with their political problems with the neighbor countries especially with Turkey, and this represents a weak point of which Iraq will suffer if the water problem with the neighbor countries is not solved by a permanent agreement basing on the principles put by the International Law in this field, otherwise Iraq security will be threatened by any political tension with the neighbor countries.

More over the climatic changes have a great effect, the decrease of rain and the high temperature, which led to the recurrence of the arid or dryness years to which the Tigris and Euphrates basin and the whole Middle East area subjected, these changes , during the last ten years , resulted in the increase of the arid and semi arid regions at the expense of the wet regions, the climatic studies in this fields referred that Middle East area is affected by the climatic changes.

So the study tried to define the problems on its all aspects ; the human one represented by the water policy of the neighbor countries and its effect on the water, quality and quantity, that reached Iraq from Euphrates , and the natural represented by the climatic changes and their futuristic dangers, or the climatic internal factors represented by pollution, water waste and the increasing consumption due to the multi requirements.

These factors are studied in detail, and the researcher put forward the suggestions that might deal with this problem and limit its effect.

The most important results of this study is that Iraq was not suffering of this problem before 1973, rather are surplus of water went to the Arab Gulf , and Iraq water incomes from Euphrates from (1930) to (1970) were about (30,3 )milliards M3, the problem appeared when Turkey and Syria started their water projects on Euphrates after 1973 The study also revealed that the climatic changes has a great effect on the quantity and quality of Euphrates water.

In addition the study found that Euphrates water have a very high rate of pollution by the chemical , physical and bacteriological materials to an extent that access the formal standards and limits put by the Iraqi State which form a human and environmental danger for all livings , it also found that there is an increase requirements of water for all uses , the agricultural one is the first, and that the waste water rate is very high due to the old methods of irrigation.

The study conclude that war is not the optimum method to solve the problem and the resolution is the cooperation strategy among the basin countries , that is to say , to find co- projects serve the basin countries.