أزمة قطاع غزة في ضوء التحديات الداخلية و الإقليمية

الملخص EN

The past and present of the Gaza Strip has always been associated with crises, confrontation, siege and resistance.

There are actually a number of factors putting the area in a very serious situation, such as the Israeli occupation along with its systematic aggressions; tightened siege since 2007; Egyptian developments since July 2013; and negative Palestinian- Palestinian the shifts attributed to regional impacts.

That pushes the ACT to assign its 5th report to address the internal and external challenges facing the Strip, the available points of influence and the scenarios for any developments.

Based on the challenges and potentials, the study briefs the options open for Gaza in several points, mainly: steadfastness; maintaining the current calm; ending the calm and going back to armed confrontation; Palestinian reconciliation; and breaking the freeze with the resistance axis.

It is argued that a number of factors are likely to affect the area, such as the shifts in the region – especially the political and security developments of Egypt – the dead-end in the negotiations with Israel; the expected failure of Kerry’s proposals; and the possibilities of Syria’s conflict’s progress and expansion across the borders.

These would bear a number of scenarios.

The first is the persistence of the status quo of siege and increasing constraints by the Hebrew State and the world.

The second is escalation, violence and ending the quiet.

The third is the expansion of the Syrian conflict to reach Gaza.

The fourth is the adoption of policies of openness to alleviate the blockade, which gives a better chance for reconciliation and understandings.

Finally, a number of recommendations are made for those concerned in the Strip and the region.

One of them is to make no association between the attitude to Gaza and some problems with political Islam movements, especially in Egypt.

In other words, the Palestinian issue must be detached from local, national or regional political conflicts.

Another recommendation is to adopt open-minded thinking of options to find a way out, rather than taking hard variables or weak ideological stances for granted.

Finally, pan-Arab patronage – shared by Egypt in a way or another regardless of its regime – needs to be maintained to achieve the Palestinian reconciliation, settle the dispute with Cairo, end the siege and start the reconstruction programme.