Oil prices and the global economy : is it different this time around ?
المؤلفون المشاركون
Mohaddes, Kamiar
Pesaran, M. Hashim
المصدر
Economic Research Forum : Working Paper Series
العدد
المجلد 2016، العدد 979-1073 (31 ديسمبر/كانون الأول 2016)، ص ص. 1-22، 22ص.
الناشر
منتدى البحوث الاقتصادية للدول العربية إيران و تركيا
تاريخ النشر
2016-12-31
دولة النشر
مصر
عدد الصفحات
22
التخصصات الرئيسية
العلوم الاقتصادية والمالية وإدارة الأعمال
الملخص EN
The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the US and the global economy.
In this paper, using a quarterly multicountry econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to lower interest rates and inflation in most countries, and increase global real equity prices.
The effects on real output are positive, although they take longer to materialize (around 4 quarters after the shock).
We then re-examine the effects of low oil prices on the US economy over different sub-periods using monthly observations on real oil prices, real equity prices and real dividends.
We confirm the perverse positive relationship between oil and equity prices over the period since the 2008 financial crisis highlighted in the recent literature, but show that this relationship has been unstable when considered over the longer time period of 1946–2016.
In contrast, we find a stable negative relationship between oil prices and real dividends which we argue is a better proxy for economic activity (as compared to equity prices).
On the supply side, the effects of lower oil prices differ widely across the different oil producers, and could be perverse initially, as some of the major oil producers try to compensate their loss of revenues by raising production.
Taking demand and supply adjustments to oil price changes as a whole, we conclude that oil markets equilibrate but rather slowly, with large episodic swings between low and high oil prices.
نمط استشهاد جمعية علماء النفس الأمريكية (APA)
Mohaddes, Kamiar& Pesaran, M. Hashim. 2016. Oil prices and the global economy : is it different this time around ?. Economic Research Forum : Working Paper Series،Vol. 2016, no. 979-1073, pp.1-22.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-729491
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الأمريكية للغات الحديثة (MLA)
Mohaddes, Kamiar& Pesaran, M. Hashim. Oil prices and the global economy : is it different this time around ?. Economic Research Forum : Working Paper Series No. 979-1073 (Dec. 2016), pp.1-22.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-729491
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الطبية الأمريكية (AMA)
Mohaddes, Kamiar& Pesaran, M. Hashim. Oil prices and the global economy : is it different this time around ?. Economic Research Forum : Working Paper Series. 2016. Vol. 2016, no. 979-1073, pp.1-22.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-729491
نوع البيانات
مقالات
لغة النص
الإنجليزية
الملاحظات
Includes appendices : p. 15-22
رقم السجل
BIM-729491
قاعدة معامل التأثير والاستشهادات المرجعية العربي "ارسيف Arcif"
أضخم قاعدة بيانات عربية للاستشهادات المرجعية للمجلات العلمية المحكمة الصادرة في العالم العربي
تقوم هذه الخدمة بالتحقق من التشابه أو الانتحال في الأبحاث والمقالات العلمية والأطروحات الجامعية والكتب والأبحاث باللغة العربية، وتحديد درجة التشابه أو أصالة الأعمال البحثية وحماية ملكيتها الفكرية. تعرف اكثر