Analysis of cancer incidence and mortality in Iran using joinpoint regression analysis

الملخص EN

Background : It is important to be able to predict cancer incidence and mortality rates for planning and managing the risk factors.

Objectives : The present study investigated the changes in the incidence and mortality rates of five most common cancers in Iran.

Methods : The cancer incidence and mortality data were obtained from the national cancer and mortality registries.

Five most common cancers in bothmenandwomenwere selected.

Changes in the incidence and mortality rates of the selected cancers in both sexes were estimated by age group, annual percent change (APC), and average APC (AAPC) and then graphically displayed.

Results : The most common cancers (except skin cancer) were breast, colorectal, stomach, esophageal, and thyroid cancers in women and stomach, prostate, bladder, colorectal, and esophageal cancers in men, respectively.

The AAPCs of all cancer incidence rates had increased by 11.9% in men and 11.6% in women from 2002 to 2010.

Also, the mortality rates had enhanced by 0.4% and 0.1% per year in men and women from 2006 to 2011, respectively.

The greatest APC was reported in prostate cancer.

The rate had increased by 41.9% from 2002 to 2004, by 13.4% from 2004 to 2008, and slowly augmented by 3.9% from 2008 to 2010.

In women, the greatest APC was observed in colorectal cancer; the rate had enhanced by 13.4% per year from 2002 to 2010.

The greatest increase for age-standardized mortality and incidence in 2011 was attributed to gastric cancer (12.5% and 17.1% per 100,000 men, respectively).

In women, the highest age-standardized mortality rate was related to gastric cancer at 6.9% per 100,000 women.

The incidence and mortality patterns of colorectal and esophageal cancers in men and women were similar, although they were slightly higher in men than women.

Conclusions : Overall, cancer incidence rates had increased in both sexes.

Manyfactors were responsible, such as changes in lifestyle, environmental factors, increased life expectancy, improvements in the registration systems, and declining mortality rates due to early detection and treatment.

The results of this study provided useful information for the prediction of changes in the incidence and mortality of cancer and subsequent design of cancer control programs in Iran.

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