دراسة قياسية و تنبؤيه لأسعار النفط العالمية خلال الفترة (1970-2018)‎

الملخص EN

The study aims to forecast oil prices over the medium term (2014-2018), and this after knowing the factors affecting them, and determine the relationship between all variables.

To achieve this target, we used ImpluseReponse Functions of the estimated Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) in a manner of “Johannsen”, for the purpose of testing the existence of equilibrium relationship in the long run.The results showed that oil prices were positivelyaffected by changes in global oil demand and inflation in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries, while theywere negatively affected by global supply of oil.Forecast, also, showed that oil prices will range between 70 and 80 Dollars in the medium term