Stochastic analysis of daily inflow of (Hilla river)‎ in Babylon province

الملخص EN

The daily time series (stochastic) of the inflow discharge of (Al-Hilla River) at Babylon was analyzed as a time series.

The data used for the analysis was the daily series during (2004-2014).

The series was tested for non homogeneity and found to be nonhomogeneous.

A significant positive jump was observed at 2009.

This non-homogeneity was removed, the homogeneous series was then normalized transformation.

The periodic component of the series was fitted using harmonic analyses, and removed from the series to obtain the dependent stochastic component.

This component was then modeled using first order autoregressive model (Markovian chain).

The above analysis was conducted using the data for the period (2004-2012), the remaining two-years (2013-2014) of the observed data was left for the verification of the model.

The observed model was used to generate future series.

Those series were compared with the observed series using t-test.

The comparison indicates the capability of the model to produce acceptable future data