Fiscal-monetary interdependence and exchange rate regimes in oil-dependent Arab economies

الملخص EN

This paper contributes to the literature on the interdependence between fiscal and monetary policies in resource-dependent economies.

In the context of this general theme we analyze the fiscal foundation of the choice of monetary regimes and the extent of pro-cyclicality of fiscal policy during the post mid-1990s oil boom in the relatively under-research oil-dependent Arab economies.

We find preliminary evidence on the existence of a threshold effect for oil rents per capita, below which countries tend to be subject to fiscal dominance and pro-cyclical fiscal policy.

This might explain the country experiences of low rents per capita and relatively populous Sudan and Yemen, compared to the GCC member countries of Oman, Saudi Arabia, the UAE as well as Algeria.

The latter managed to sustain credible de facto pegged exchange rate regimes and convertible currencies (for the GCC) or graduate to flexible regime (for Algeria).

Instead, the former had to abandon their pegged regimes as a result of their unsuccessful exchange rate-based stabilization programs.

However, the contrast with resourcedependent Chile and Norway suggests that for the Arab oil economies to accommodate future oil busts they need to establish explicit fiscal rules and high technical capabilities for conducting monetary policy.