مدى أهمية النسب المالية المشتقة من قائمتي الدخل و المركز المالي للتنبؤ بالفشل المالي في الشركات الصناعية العامة في ليبيا

الملخص EN

This study aims at recognizing the importance of "Financial Ratios", derived from the two statements of income and financial position; and that is in order to forecast the financial failure in the public industrial companies in Libya.

In order to achieve the objectives of this study, the "Financial Ratios", derived from the two statements of income and financial position, were used to build a "Model" for forecasting the financial failure; and that is in order to recognize the capability of this "model" in distinguishing between the successful companies and the unsuccessful ones.

Therefore, the researchers used the "Multivariate Linear Discriminant Analysis Method", in order to reach the best group of "Financial Ratios" which could be used in building the proposed model.

Hence, (18) financial ratios were counted for a sample of (33) companies, for an extended period of time (from 1998 to 2011); as this period of time was divided into two main periods as follows: first, the period of designing the model (from 1998 to 2006), as the model designing sample consisted of (23) companies; second, the period of testing the model (from 2007 to 2011), as the designed model was tested on a sample of (10) companies.

The study concluded a "Model" for forecasting the financial failure, consisted of (4) financial ratios which are: the ratio of the inventory turnover, the ratio of the gross profit margin, the ratio of the assets' return and the ratio of the networking capital's turnover.

In addition, it was found that the "model" is capable of forecasting the financial failure in the companies of the testing sample.

At the end of 2008, the model's accuracy in forecasting the financial failure, was (100%) in the successful companies and (50%) in the failed ones.

At the end of 2009, the model's accuracy in forecasting the financial failure, was (100%) in the successful companies and (66.7%) in the failed ones.

At the end of 2010, the model's accuracy in forecasting the financial failure was (100%) in the successful companies and (66.7%) in the failed ones.

Finally, at the end of 2011, the model's accuracy in forecasting the financial failure, was (100%) in the successful companies and (40%) in the failed ones.