أثر التباين المناخي على إنتاجية محصول القمح في العراق : دراسة في المناخ التطبيقي

الملخص EN

The research aims to study the impact of the climate elementals variability (temperature and rainfall) on the productivity of wheat crop in Iraq, with an area of (435,052 km2).

In this research we investigate the suitable environmental conditions (climatic elements and soil) for the cultivation of wheat crop, as well as knowledge of climate elemental (average temperature and total rainfall) within the search area, as well as the spatial distribution of the wheat crop production into categories according to the production, and the result shows that the amount of production has varied from one province to another.

In addition , the relationship between climate elements (average temperatures and the total of rainfall) with the crop production ,for each climate element separately, as well as the two elements together and the crop production for each province separately ,and For all provinces (Ninawa, Baghdad and Basra).

The results showed that the correlation between climatic elements and the wheat production plants for Ninawa, Baghdad and Basra are 0.15, 0.38 and 0.35 respectively, so its look moderate to weak relationship, while the correlation is very strong (0.995) for the all provinces together.

Finally ,we concluded the forecasting equation for wheat crop production according to climate elements, the forecasting equation for temperature is (Y = 1814877.70 +)and (x= -100022.54) and the equation for total production is (Y = -240025.7 )+ (x=18406.56) and the equation for total production with climatic elements is (Y = 172228.12 )and (x2= - 20924.07) (x1 =15215.32).