Assessment of monthly surface air temperature in Iraq using general circulation model

الملخص EN

Global Climate Models (GCM) has been developed to perform climate projection to simulate and understand climate change in response to emission of greenhouse.

The aim of this study is to use simple numerical climate models to investigate effect of various parameters, functions, and components of climate system on the temperature rise.

Two climate changes scenarios used to estimate and explore the future rise surface air temperature over Iraq until 2050.

The result of the surface air temperature of scenario A for July has been 31.6 C in the first decade (1961 - 1970), while the last decade of study has been more than 37 ºC, while scenario C less than scenario A 3.8 ºC for most cases.

January's surface air temperature for last decade has been 10.0 ºC, while observation data is more than model by two times.

Anomaly surface air temperature focused on the behavior of variable more than value of it, so that this study carried out the fluctuations of two scenarios have been close together for first five decades, while the difference appears in the last three decades for example for Baghdad city in winter the difference between two scenarios began form 2030 about 2 ºC.

Summer surface air temperature for Baghdad city has been higher value than surrounding regions for both scenarios A and C to reach 2-3 ºC.