تحليل صدمات السياسة المالية في الاقتصاد الجزائري للفترة 200-2017 باستخدام نموذج الانحدار البيزي BVAR

الملخص EN

This paper analyzes the economic fiscal policy shocks on economic activity in Algeria using Bayesian AutoRegression using quarterly data from 2000 to 2017, The results of response functions analysis study on as follows: One positive structural shock in government spending an estimated 1% would have a negative impact on GDP in the first period after shock estimated -0.00028%, to improve with weak impact of start second period achieved a positive impact until the end of the response time, tops in the fourth period 0.00069%, as will generate inflationary pressures in the short term, especially in the second period estimated 0.082%.

The government revenue response to shock the Government revenue is more stable compared with the response of the Government spending shock Government spending, reflecting the public revenue expenditure dependency.