محاولة اقتراح نموذج SARIMA للتنبؤ بمبيعات الكهرباء الموجهة لزبائن التوتر المتوسط في الجزائر : حالة : مديرية التوزيع ورقلة

الملخص EN

Electricity sales in Algeria have important statistical characteristics that should be taken into account in the problem of modeling.

It is about the existence of seasonal and monthly fluctuations that have a direct impact on the predictive process and the ability of the model to solve the phenomenon.

Therefore, we have to adopt accurate statistical models that enable us to predict the future Electricity sales.

Among the models used in the prediction process are seasonal and other nonseasonal models (self-regression models - moving averages - mixed and multiplied models.

This study examines the periodic behavior of these variables by taking the random general trend and the two regressions Self, moving averages and seasonal integration factors.

In this standard study, we will attempt to analyze the periodic behavior of electricity sales directed to MT clients.