How climate change is likely to influence the spatial distribution of Aedes Aegypti and dengue fever in the Arab world

الملخص EN

Areas infested by Aedes aegypti usually record a high outbreak of dengue.

The Aedes aegypti mosquito and dengue transmission are climate sensitive.

In this study, we used simulation analysis to project different parameters, e.g.

temperature, moisture, dryness and heat, and related alterations in order to establish the potential effects of climate change on the distribution of Aedes aegypti and dengue transmission in the Arab World.

The study was based on different Climate Models (CMs) and scenarios, using CLIMEX.

The two CMs used were CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR).

These were run with the A2 SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) for 2050 and 2100.

The model was calibrated using data from several knowledge domains, including geographical distribution records.

The current climate model shows the favorability for Aedes aegypti and dengue transmission within most of the known areas in Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Djibouti and Yemen.

In the future models, we observed a general reduction or contraction in the very favorable climate areas.

The models indicate a reduction in very favorable climate areas in 2050, and this trend was observed to be exacerbated by 2100.

New areas of favorable climate conditions are observed to appear in the north east of Oman and UAE, the west of Yemen and the north of Libya.

A study of the models’ results can help to reduce the challenges facing the national health services in the Arab World; especially where they are improving the early detection of mosquito favorable areas and dengue transmission, and striving for the prevention of dengue fever.

The strategy presented here should be supported by a surveillance system sufficient to prevent the spread of this virus and the resulting public health threat.