تأثير سد النهضة الأثيوبي العظيم على مستقبل الموارد المائية في كل من مصر و السودان : دراسة في الجغرافية السياسية

الملخص EN

The Great Nahdha dam which built on the Blue Nile, is one of the main supporters of the Nile in the BeniShankul-Gumuz area, 20 km from the Sudanese border.

The dam costs from 4.8 to 8 billion US dollars financed by the sale of government bonds to the Ethiopian people.The dam will generate (6000) megawatts, and when be completed, the project will become the largest electric dam in the African continent and the tenth largest in the world's largest power generation dam.

The dam will have destructive effects on Egypt, causing a deficit in Egypt water share which is about 55.5 billion cubic meters of water by 9 billion cubic meters.

The deficit will increase to 16 billion cubic meters of water with climate changes.

Egypt and Sudan assert that they have historic rights in the waters of the Nile, guaranteed by the conventions of 1929 and 1959, which grant them veto power to establish any projects that may affect their water share.

However, the Nile Basin countries say that these two conventions are inherited from the colonial era and have not been recognized, In 2011, these countries signed a new agreement aimed at reallocating the Nile water revenues between the Nile Basin countries and not recognizing the previous water agreements, and the right to set up water projects in the source countries without referring to the downstream countries Egypt and Sudan.

As a result, Egypt appears to be in a state of political and media alert to face this problem.

Where the opinions began to be distributed on several options, including military intervention and pressure on granter and funded countries to the dam, especially China and Italy.

However, there are those who prefer to use the negotiations and use all the pressure papers on Ethiopia to retreat from this step or to ensure that it does not have negative effects on Egypt's strategic water interests, especially since there are some pending issues and the most important one is how to fill the dam (74 billion m3 of water) and the period in which the dam will be filled, how it will be operated and the safety of the dam design.

This will lead to full control of Egypt's water quota and the cancelation or at least the decreasing the role of the High Dam in securing Egypt's future water.

It will also be in a critical situation when the Nahdha dam of the Ethiopian be built and thus lead to a shortage of capacity of the Egyptian dam of 25-40% of electricity and produces darkness in the governorates of Upper Egyp