Questioning International relations theories' ability to "Predict" : the case of the fall of the Soviet Unio

العناوين الأخرى

قدرة نظريات العلاقات الدولية على التنبؤ : دراسة حالة انهيار الاتحاد السوفيتي

مقدم أطروحة جامعية

Khazmo, Suma Jack

مشرف أطروحة جامعية

Baumgarten, Helga

الجامعة

جامعة بيرزيت

الكلية

كلية الدراسات العليا

القسم الأكاديمي

الدراسات الدولية

دولة الجامعة

فلسطين (الضفة الغربية)

الدرجة العلمية

ماجستير

تاريخ الدرجة العلمية

2009

الملخص الإنجليزي

The Cold War was a geopolitical, ideological and economical struggle that emerged after the World War Two between two of the global “Superpowers” at that time: The Soviet Union and the United States of America- and their alliances- approximately in the year 1947.

However, although it portrayed a historical incident; the Cold War still has a great effect on the Post-Cold War International System's Structure and its "Balance of Power", most important of which is the decline of the former Soviet Union, resulting in the transformation of the International System's power scale from a "bipolar" into a "unipolar" one.

To a degree, it was a war like all other wars.

Nonetheless, it had a unique characteristic that confused the minds of both: academic intellectuals and decision makers.

Though they expected this war to end, none of them expected it to end the way it did, peacefully.

This rather embarrassing failure of then prominent International Relations theories to predict or -at least- recognize the possibility of such a peaceful quiet ending of the Cold War, along with the change of the International system's structure from a bipolar to a "uni-polar" one, rises many questions regarding the credibility and the reliability of the Political Science in general, and the International Relations Theory in particular.

Questions and controversy revolve –particularly- around two areas of these sciences: their research questions and their research methodologies.

Thus, drawing a skeptical debate discussing whether they are to be named sciences or not.

Hence, this thesis conducts a “literature assessing” of the Cold War International Relations' literature.

It analyzes that era’s prominent IR theories, mainly: Realism, Liberalism and Radicalism.

This methodology is vital; for it sheds light on where those theories succeeded and where they missed in both: observing and tracking the falling -AKA power ceasing- course of the Soviet Union.

Consequently, it tries to answer why these theories have - failed to "predict" the peaceful manner through which both the USSR disintegrated and the Cold War ended.

Moreover, in order to achieve this goal, this dissertation is divided into four major chapters.

Chapter one, discusses the question (puzzle), hypothesis and methodology of this thesis.

While Chapter two, evolves by exploring the definition of the term "prediction" in Social Sciences; with a focus on "prediction" in both: Political Science and the schools of the Theory of International Relations.

In addition, it reviews several academic "prediction" attempts regarding the peaceful fall of the USSR.

However, chapter three is the pillar of this research; where both: a review and a critique of the Cold War literature -formed by the International Relations Theories active between 1979 and 1991- is conducted.

This literature assessing mainly discusses where those theories have succeeded and where they have missed in “predicting” the peaceful fall of the Soviet Union.

Thus, it answers the main research question put forward by this thesis which is: why have IR theories missed to" predict" the peaceful disintegration of both: the Soviet Union and the bipolar international system; a fall that paved the road to the –also- peaceful ending of the Cold War along with the USA /USSR famous rivalry? Therefore, to sufficiently critique the major and prominent schools of the Theory of International Relations (IR theory) in the Cold War era- mainly: Realism, Liberalism and Radicalism- this chapter is divided into three sub-sections.

The first sub-section analyzes the Cold war literature in the above time frame.

It further discusses the transformation paradigms and dialectics of: war, stability, transformation and peace in the International System according to Realism.

Whereas, its second and third sub- sections analyze both: Liberalism's and Radicalism's cold war literature in the same time frame.

Finally, the last chapter draws discussions and conclusions that the thesis' methodology has led to.

التخصصات الرئيسية

العلوم السياسية

عدد الصفحات

110

قائمة المحتويات

• APA
• MLA
• AMA

لغة النص

الإنجليزية

نوع البيانات

رسائل جامعية

رقم السجل

BIM-957969