أثر بعض المتغيرات الاقتصادية الكلية على معدلات البطالة في الجزائر : مساهمة قياسية تحليلية

الملخص EN

The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of the most macroeconomic variables on unemployment rate in Algeria over the period 1980: Q1 to2010: Q4.

We tried to estimate the relationship between unemployment and some fundamental macroeconomic factors (gross domestic product, real oil prices, Public revenues, inflation, government spending and exports).

This study discusses some empirical studies using econometric techniques.

We apply the Johansen test for cointegration and investigate the results of the long-run relationship estimated using the FMOLS technique of Phillips and Hansen (1990).

The result of this study, shows that GDP, public revenues, and inflation, have a low positive effect but significant in the long run on the decrease of unemployment rate.

While real oil prices have a great positive and significant impact.

With regard to the volume of exports and public spending, have a negative impact on the decrease in the unemployment rate.

These results reflect the fragility of economic structure.

The main weakness of an Algerian economy consist in the heavy reliance on hydrocarbons revenues.

Expansionary fiscal policy in Algeria using the government spending instrument in order to increase employment it did not show any effectiveness in the long run.

In a second time, we examined the relationship between economic growth and unemployment through the use of Granger causality testing during the period 1980 - 2011 (using annual data).

The Granger causality results revealed the existence of a short run unidirectional causality that runs from economic growth to unemployment rates.