استخدام منهجية بوكس-جينكينز للتنبؤ بمعدلات التضخم في الجزائر خلال الفترة (1970-2016)‎

الملخص EN

The aim of this research is to study and analyze the time series of the inflation rates in the Algerian economy during the period of 1970-2016 with using (Box & Jenkins) method (identification, estimation, diagnostic checking of Model, forecasting), whereas this models are distinct with high accuracy and flexible in analysis time series .

The results show that the The best model of box-Jenkins models that fit to represent the inflation rates in the Algeria is the autoregressive integrated moving average ARIMA(1.1.0).

The most important recommendation that have been reached is the necessity of developing the suggested model to make use of it and set future plans….and work on building projrcts that take liquidity to bridge the fiscal deficit, and import substitute industry to avoid the imported inflation.