نموذج مقترح للتنبؤ بدخول كبار السن في ظل معدلات استبدل العمالة للعاملين بالقطاع الحكومي في مصر

Abstract EN

The current era poses a challenge to the Egyptian government on how to deal with the aging of the population and the increase in the dependency ratio.

changes in the age structure of the population are accompanied by multiple effects on economic growth, as the population is divided into three age groups: the youth age, the working age, and the elderly, and that a segment of the population in the working age, they constitute the workforce that generates income and savings, so the study aims to improve the income levels of the elderly by presenting a statistical model to measure the best rate of employment replacement with three proposals (1, 0.5, 1.5), for workers in the government sector that achieve the highest income for the elderly, taking into account other variables, for the sake of desired human development, through: 1.

measuring demographic and economic variables affecting the incomes of the elderly.

2.

determining the best proposal that achieves the largest income for the elderly through the pension in light of the proposed labor replacement rates.

and she reached the following results: 1- the most influential variables in the model are: (major dependency rates- number of employees-treasury obligations-fund liabilities-investable surplus-numbers of pensioners).

2- an increase in the number of new workers leads in the future to an increase in the collected contributions to the social insurance funds and thus leads to an increase in the income of the elderly.

3- the labor replacement rate of 0.5 is the lowest rate compared to the replacement rate 1, and the replacement rate of 1.5 has doubled for contributions to social insurance funds for government sector workers during the period from 1993 to 2048, due to the high number of new employees in the third proposal compared to the other two proposals.