التنبؤ بالمبيعات باستخدام نماذج TGARCH : دراسة حالة مبيعات الكهرباء الشهرية لزبائن التوتر المتوسط-الجزائر-مديرية توزيع الكهرباء و الغاز بالمسيلة خلال الفترة 2006-2017

الملخص EN

The main objective of this study is to model the monthly electricity sales of the medium voltage customers of the directorate of electricity and gas distribution in Mesaila during the period from January 2006 to December 2017.

To achieve this objective we decided to divide this study into two aspects.

using time series by presenting the most important linear models and nonlinear models, after addressing the basic concepts of forecasting and forecasting sales, while we devoted the second aspect to the standard study and specifically to model these sales using the self regression models (ARMA) and self-regression models conditional on the heterogeneity of the variance of the ARCH errors.