إسرائيل و مستقبل التسوية في القدس

Abstract EN

The city of Jerusalem is the cornerstone of the Israeli / Arab conflict, as a result of Jerusalem’s unique importance ; it has been the focal point of a number of projects, recommendations and potential scenarios–some specific and some general, some regional and others international.

However, in all cases, the suggestions presented, mainly by political or academic international figures, have tried to present a new vision for Jerusalem.

For the purposes of this study we will focus on the suggestions made by the parties to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

Indeed, and as Jerusalem is the most complicated aspect of the conflict, a number of scenarios have been presented as follows the most importance of which states what is called Firstly : The Religious Scenario Secondly : The administrative scenario Thirdly : The Geographic Scenario.

But regarding the complex nature of the conflict, both sides have necessarily irreconcilably objectives and interests that necessitate one of the following two future prospects : The most probable scenario entails the adoption, of one or both parties, of a strategy of conflict management and containment-as opposed to resolutiontoward Jerusalem this can be achieved by maintaining control and affective the main factors of the problem toward individual objectives and goals.

The second scenario may emerge as result of the failure of the first and the inability of the two parties to reach a compromise on the major points of contention to the extent that the negotiation process as a whole is deemed useless.

In other words, failure in implementing what is called "the minimum", means nothing but a new phase of war which has become very likely, given the dramatic developments in the shadow of the Palestinian uprising in the occupied territories.

This unrest would also be fuelled by the continuation of the radical national Right, currently in power in Israel, which represents the extreme political and regional objectives that are being supported by elements in the US.

Moreover, recent international developments concerning Iraq and other states in the region confirm, once again, that failure in implementing the opportunity for 'the minimum' will leave causes of instability open.