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Uncertainty Assessment: Reservoir Inflow Forecasting with Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts and HEC-HMS
Joint Authors
Source
Issue
Vol. 2014, Issue 2014 (31 Dec. 2014), pp.1-11, 11 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2014-08-26
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
11
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
During an extreme event, having accurate inflow forecasting with enough lead time helps reservoir operators decrease the impact of floods downstream.
Furthermore, being able to efficiently operate reservoirs could help maximize flood protection while saving water for drier times of the year.
This study combines ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts and a hydrological model to provide a 3-day reservoir inflow in the Shihmen Reservoir, Taiwan.
A total of six historical typhoons were used for model calibration, validation, and application.
An understanding of cascaded uncertainties from the numerical weather model through the hydrological model is necessary for a better use for forecasting.
This study thus conducted an assessment of forecast uncertainty on magnitude and timing of peak and cumulative inflows.
It found that using the ensemble-mean had less uncertainty than randomly selecting individual member.
The inflow forecasts with shorter length of cumulative time had a higher uncertainty.
The results showed that using the ensemble precipitation forecasts with the hydrological model would have the advantage of extra lead time and serve as a valuable reference for operating reservoirs.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Yang, Sheng-Chi& Yang, Tsun-Hua. 2014. Uncertainty Assessment: Reservoir Inflow Forecasting with Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts and HEC-HMS. Advances in Meteorology،Vol. 2014, no. 2014, pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1015522
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Yang, Sheng-Chi& Yang, Tsun-Hua. Uncertainty Assessment: Reservoir Inflow Forecasting with Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts and HEC-HMS. Advances in Meteorology No. 2014 (2014), pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1015522
American Medical Association (AMA)
Yang, Sheng-Chi& Yang, Tsun-Hua. Uncertainty Assessment: Reservoir Inflow Forecasting with Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts and HEC-HMS. Advances in Meteorology. 2014. Vol. 2014, no. 2014, pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1015522
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1015522