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New Optimal Weight Combination Model for Forecasting Precipitation
Joint Authors
Yang, Song-shan
Jiang, Rong
Zhang, Yi-che
Yang, Xiaohua
Source
Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Issue
Vol. 2012, Issue 2012 (31 Dec. 2012), pp.1-13, 13 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2012-04-04
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
13
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
In order to overcome the inaccuracy of the forecast of a single model, a new optimal weight combination model is established to increase accuracies in precipitation forecasting, in which three forecast submodels based on rank set pair analysis (R-SPA) model, radical basis function (RBF) model and autoregressive model (AR) and one weight optimization model based on improved real-code genetic algorithm (IRGA) are introduced.
The new model for forecasting precipitation time series is tested using the annual precipitation data of Beijing, China, from 1978 to 2008.
Results indicate the optimal weights were obtained by using genetic algorithm in the new optimal weight combination model.
Compared with the results of R-SPA, RBF, and AR models, the new model can improve the forecast accuracy of precipitation in terms of the error sum of squares.
The amount of improved precision is 22.6%, 47.4%, 40.6%, respectively.
This new forecast method is an extension to the combination prediction method.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Yang, Song-shan& Yang, Xiaohua& Jiang, Rong& Zhang, Yi-che. 2012. New Optimal Weight Combination Model for Forecasting Precipitation. Mathematical Problems in Engineering،Vol. 2012, no. 2012, pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1029560
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Yang, Song-shan…[et al.]. New Optimal Weight Combination Model for Forecasting Precipitation. Mathematical Problems in Engineering No. 2012 (2012), pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1029560
American Medical Association (AMA)
Yang, Song-shan& Yang, Xiaohua& Jiang, Rong& Zhang, Yi-che. New Optimal Weight Combination Model for Forecasting Precipitation. Mathematical Problems in Engineering. 2012. Vol. 2012, no. 2012, pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1029560
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1029560