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Modelling HIVAIDS Epidemic among Men Who Have Sex with Men in China
Joint Authors
Sun, Xiaodan
Wang, Ning
Xiao, Yanni
Peng, Zhihang
Source
Issue
Vol. 2013, Issue 2013 (31 Dec. 2013), pp.1-18, 18 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2013-09-30
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
18
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
A compartmental model with antiviral therapy was proposed to identify the important factors that influence HIV infection among gay men in China and suggest some effective control strategies.
We proved that the disease will be eradicated if the reproduction number is less than one.
Based on the number of annual reported HIV/AIDS among MSM we used the Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) simulation to estimate the unknown parameters.
We estimated a mean reproduction number of 3.88 (95% CI: 3.69–4.07).
The estimation results showed that there werea higher transmission rate and a lower diagnose rate among MSM than those for another high-risk population.
We compared the current treatment policy and immediate therapy once people are diagnosed with HIV, and numerical studies indicated that immediate antiviral therapy would lead to few HIV new infections conditional upon relatively low infectiousness; otherwise the current treatment policy would result in low HIV new infection.
Further, increasing treatment coverage rate may lead to decline in HIV new infections and be beneficial to disease control, depending on the infectiousness of the infected individuals with antiviral therapy.
The finding suggested that treatment efficacy (directly affecting infectiousness), behavior changes, and interventions greatly affect HIV new infection; strengthening intensity will contribute to the disease control.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Sun, Xiaodan& Xiao, Yanni& Peng, Zhihang& Wang, Ning. 2013. Modelling HIVAIDS Epidemic among Men Who Have Sex with Men in China. BioMed Research International،Vol. 2013, no. 2013, pp.1-18.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1030526
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Sun, Xiaodan…[et al.]. Modelling HIVAIDS Epidemic among Men Who Have Sex with Men in China. BioMed Research International No. 2013 (2013), pp.1-18.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1030526
American Medical Association (AMA)
Sun, Xiaodan& Xiao, Yanni& Peng, Zhihang& Wang, Ning. Modelling HIVAIDS Epidemic among Men Who Have Sex with Men in China. BioMed Research International. 2013. Vol. 2013, no. 2013, pp.1-18.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1030526
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1030526