Reconstruction of Dynamical Forecasting Model between Western Pacific Subtropical High Area Index and Its Summer Monsoon Impact Factors Based on the Improved Self-Memorization Principle
Joint Authors
Zhang, Ren
Chen, Xi
Ge, Shanshan
Bai, Chengzu
Singh, Vijay P.
Hong, Mei
Source
Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
Issue
Vol. 2014, Issue 2014 (31 Dec. 2014), pp.1-12, 12 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2014-12-09
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
12
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
With the objective of tackling the problem of inaccurate long-term western pacific subtropical high (WPSH) forecasts, based on the concept of dynamical model reconstruction and improved self-memorization principle, a new dynamical forecasting model of WPSH area (SI) index is developed.
To overcome the problem of single initial prediction value, the largest Lyapunov exponent is introduced to improve the traditional self-memorization function, making it more appropriate to describe the chaotic systems, such as WPSH; the equation reconstruction by actual data is used as its dynamical core to overcome the problem of relatively simple dynamical core.
The developed dynamical forecasting model of SI index is used to predict WPSH strength in the long term.
Through 10 experiments of the WPSH abnormal years, forecast results within 25 days are found to be good, with a correlation coefficient of about 0.80 and root mean square error under 8%, showing that the improved model has satisfactory long-term forecasting results.
In particular the aberrance of the subtropical high can be drawn and forecast.
It is acknowledged that mechanism for the occurrence and development of WPSH is complex, so the discussion in this paper is therefore exploratory.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Hong, Mei& Zhang, Ren& Chen, Xi& Ge, Shanshan& Bai, Chengzu& Singh, Vijay P.. 2014. Reconstruction of Dynamical Forecasting Model between Western Pacific Subtropical High Area Index and Its Summer Monsoon Impact Factors Based on the Improved Self-Memorization Principle. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society،Vol. 2014, no. 2014, pp.1-12.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1035039
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Hong, Mei…[et al.]. Reconstruction of Dynamical Forecasting Model between Western Pacific Subtropical High Area Index and Its Summer Monsoon Impact Factors Based on the Improved Self-Memorization Principle. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society No. 2014 (2014), pp.1-12.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1035039
American Medical Association (AMA)
Hong, Mei& Zhang, Ren& Chen, Xi& Ge, Shanshan& Bai, Chengzu& Singh, Vijay P.. Reconstruction of Dynamical Forecasting Model between Western Pacific Subtropical High Area Index and Its Summer Monsoon Impact Factors Based on the Improved Self-Memorization Principle. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society. 2014. Vol. 2014, no. 2014, pp.1-12.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1035039
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1035039