قياس و تحليل العلاقة السببية بين سعر برميل النفط و سعر أونصة الذهب خلال الفترة (2005-2016)‎

Abstract EN

JEL: B23, C58, Q41The combined economic importance of both oil and gold commodities and their role in influencing the global economy and the formulation and implementation of global monetary policies led to the emergence of a strong relationship between these two commodities and their price changes positively and negatively and from time to time.

So this research came to explain, measure and analyze the causal relationship between the price of oil barrel and the price of ounce of gold.

After conducting the "Dickey-Fuller" test, testing the causal relationship of "Granger" and estimating and analyzing the model based on the value of "Akaike", the research concluded that the price of gold is a dependent variable and the price of oil is considered an independent variable, there is also a direct moral effect of the price of oil on the price of a ounce of gold, and that the relationship between the two prices is an indirect relationship controlled by a combination of factors which are interest rates, global inflation rates and the exchange rate of the US dollar.