The Arctic and Antarctic Sea-Ice Area Index Records versus Measured and Modeled Temperature Data

Abstract EN

Here we study the Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice area records provided by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

These records reveal an opposite climatic behavior: since 1978 the Arctic sea-ice area index decreased, that is, the region has warmed, while the Antarctic sea-ice area index increased, that is, the region has cooled.

During the last 7 years the Arctic sea-ice area has stabilized while the Antarctic sea-ice area has increased at a rate significantly higher than during the previous decades; that is, the sea-ice area of both regions has experienced a positive acceleration.

This result is quite robust because it is confirmed by alternative temperature climate indices of the same regions.

We also found that a significant 4-5-year naturaloscillation characterizes the climate of these sea-ice polar areas.

On the contrary, we found that the CMIP5 general circulation modelshave predicted significant warming in both polar sea regions and failed to reproduce the strong 4-5-year oscillation.

Because the CMIP5GCM simulations are inconsistent with the observations, we suggest that important natural mechanisms of climate change are missing in the models.