Modeling Illicit Drug Use Dynamics and Its Optimal Control Analysis

Abstract EN

The global burden of death and disability attributable to illicit drug use, remains a significant threat to public health for both developed and developing nations.

This paper presents a new mathematical modeling framework to investigate the effects of illicit drug use in the community.

In our model the transmission process is captured as a social “contact” process between the susceptible individuals and illicit drug users.

We conduct both epidemic and endemic analysis, with a focus on the threshold dynamics characterized by the basic reproduction number.

Using our model, we present illustrative numerical results with a case study in Cape Town, Gauteng, Mpumalanga and Durban communities of South Africa.

In addition, the basic model is extended to incorporate time dependent intervention strategies.