Multivariate Radiological-Based Models for the Prediction of Future Knee Pain: Data from the OAI

Abstract EN

In this work, the potential of X-ray based multivariate prognostic models to predict the onset of chronic knee pain is presented.

Using X-rays quantitative image assessments of joint-space-width (JSW) and paired semiquantitative central X-ray scores from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI), a case-control study is presented.

The pain assessments of the right knee at the baseline and the 60-month visits were used to screen for case/control subjects.

Scores were analyzed at the time of pain incidence (T-0), the year prior incidence (T-1), and two years before pain incidence (T-2).

Multivariate models were created by a cross validated elastic-net regularized generalized linear models feature selection tool.

Univariate differences between cases and controls were reported by AUC, C-statistics, and ODDs ratios.

Univariate analysis indicated that the medial osteophytes were significantly more prevalent in cases than controls: C-stat 0.62, 0.62, and 0.61, at T-0, T-1, and T-2, respectively.

The multivariate JSW models significantly predicted pain: AUC = 0.695, 0.623, and 0.620, at T-0, T-1, and T-2, respectively.

Semiquantitative multivariate models predicted paint with C-stat = 0.671, 0.648, and 0.645 at T-0, T-1, and T-2, respectively.

Multivariate models derived from plain X-ray radiography assessments may be used to predict subjects that are at risk of developing knee pain.