Global Dynamics and Applications of an Epidemiological Model for Hepatitis C Virus Transmission in China

Abstract EN

An epidemiological model is proposed and studied to understand thetransmission dynamics and prevalence of HCV infection in China.

Theoretical analysis indicates that the basic reproduction numberR0 provides a threshold value determining whether the diseasedies out or not.

Two Lyapunov functions are constructed to prove theglobal asymptotic stability of the disease-free and the endemicequilibria, respectively.

Based on data reported by the National Health andFamily Planning Commission of China, the basic reproduction numberis estimated as approximately R0=1.9897, which is much less thanthat for the model when a treatment strategy is not considered.

Anever-increasing HCV infection is predicted in the near future.

Numerical simulations, performed to investigate the potential effectof antiviral treatment, show that increasing the treatment cure rateand enlarging the treatment rate for patients at the chronicstage remain effective in reducing the number of new infections and theequilibrium prevalence.

The finding suggests that treatment measuresare significantly beneficial for disease control in terms of reducingnew infections and, in particular, more attention should be paid totreatment for patients at the chronic stage.