![](/images/graphics-bg.png)
Mathematical Development and Evaluation of Forecasting Models for Accuracy of Inflation in Developing Countries: A Case of Vietnam
Joint Authors
Nguyen, Nhu-Ty
Tran, Thanh-Tuyen
Source
Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
Issue
Vol. 2015, Issue 2015 (31 Dec. 2015), pp.1-14, 14 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2015-06-11
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
14
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
Inflation is a key element of a national economy, and it is also a prominent and important issue influencing the whole economy in terms of marketing.
This is a complex problem requiring a large investment of time and wisdom to attain positive results.
Thus, appropriate tools for forecasting inflation variables are crucial significant for policy making.
In this study, both clarified value calculation and use of a genetic algorithm to find the optimal parameters are adopted simultaneously to construct improved models: ARIMA, GM(1,1), Verhulst, DGM(1,1), and DGM(2,1) by using data of Vietnamese inflation output from January 2005 to November 2013.
The MAPE, MSE, RMSE, and MAD are four criteria with which the various forecasting models results are compared.
Moreover, to see whether differences exist, Friedman and Wilcoxon tests are applied.
Both in-sample and out-of-sample forecast performance results show that the ARIMA model has highly accurate forecasting in Raw Materials Price (RMP) and Gold Price (GP), whereas, the calculated results of GM(1,1) and DGM(1,1) are suitable to forecast Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Therefore, the ARIMA, GM(1,1), and DGM(1,1) can handle the forecast accuracy of the issue, and they are suitable in modeling and forecasting of inflation in the case of Vietnam.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Nguyen, Nhu-Ty& Tran, Thanh-Tuyen. 2015. Mathematical Development and Evaluation of Forecasting Models for Accuracy of Inflation in Developing Countries: A Case of Vietnam. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society،Vol. 2015, no. 2015, pp.1-14.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1060795
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Nguyen, Nhu-Ty& Tran, Thanh-Tuyen. Mathematical Development and Evaluation of Forecasting Models for Accuracy of Inflation in Developing Countries: A Case of Vietnam. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society No. 2015 (2015), pp.1-14.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1060795
American Medical Association (AMA)
Nguyen, Nhu-Ty& Tran, Thanh-Tuyen. Mathematical Development and Evaluation of Forecasting Models for Accuracy of Inflation in Developing Countries: A Case of Vietnam. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society. 2015. Vol. 2015, no. 2015, pp.1-14.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1060795
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1060795